FIFA released a statement today saying that Luis Suarez is suspended for 9 matches, as well as for 4 months from any football related activity.  This is quite a harsh suspension, but considering this is Luis Suarez’s third offense for biting an opponent we all knew it was going to be a significant suspension.

Luis-Suarez-Uruguay-World-Cup-2014

The question now becomes does Uruguay still have a chance at World Cup success without their star striker?

After checking the odds at Bet365, which is one of the top betting sites in the UK, the consensus seems to be no.  To learn more about Bet365 check out this review from SportsBetListings.com.  Uruguay is a big underdog against Colombia in their round of 16 match and if they do pull out that win they will get either Brazil or Chile in the quarterfinals.  Even if they miraculously beat either of these two solid nations they will still have 2 more matches without Suarez to claim the World Title.  The feat is starting to seem near impossible.

Against Colombia Bet365 is giving Uruguay odds of 2.62 to advance to the quarterfinals.  That roughly translates into an implied probability of 38% that Uruguay advances past Colombia.  I personally think that’s generous because Colombia is proving to be one of the strongest teams at the tournament.

Bet365 also offers odds on teams to win the World Cup outright.  Uruguay is given odds of 34.00, which translates to them having a 2.94% chance at winning the tournament.  These aren’t good odds, but they aren’t purely impossible odds either.  But when you consider that Uruguay had odds of 29.00 to start the tournament and they now have worse odds even though they reached the round of 16 out of a tough group you start to realize that the oddsmakers do believe that Luis Suarez was extremely vital to Uruguay’s chances of World Cup success.

I personally expect Uruguay to drop their next match against Colombia and would be extremely surprised to see them in the semi-finals after coming out of the quarter of the draw that has turned into a miniature South American tournament.

Time will tell though and each match starts at 0-0 so everything is possible, even without Uruguay’s star attraction.